The global elevator modernization market is projected to exceed $20 billion by 2030, according to a January 2026 report from Research and Markets, growing from an estimated $15.22 billion this year at a compound annual growth rate between 6 and 10 percent depending on methodology. The projection aligns with an earlier Allied Market Research estimate and reflects a structural shift that has been building for years but is now accelerating on three fronts simultaneously: an aging global fleet that is running out of parts, tightening safety codes that are forcing upgrades, and energy regulations that are making old equipment a financial liability.
The numbers tell the story. Industry estimates place the global installed base of elevators and escalators at more than 20 million units, with KONE citing more than 10 million aging units worldwide that are candidates for modernization. In the United States alone, there are over one million installed elevators, and a significant portion of them are approaching or past the point where frequent service issues begin, typically around the 12 to 15 year mark. In New York City, roughly 25 percent of the city's 70,000 elevators are due for major upgrades. The available parts supply for older controllers and drives is thinning out, and some components are simply no longer manufactured. For building owners, the question is no longer whether to modernize but when, and the economics of delay are getting worse every year.
Every major OEM has responded with new modular modernization packages designed to make the decision easier. Otis launched Arise MOD in Europe in September 2025 and expanded it to North America in February 2026, offering two tiers: MOD Prime for control system and safety upgrades, and MOD Plus for a more comprehensive overhaul including a new geared machine and door system. The results show in their financials. Otis reported modernization orders up 43 percent in Q4 2025, full-year organic modernization sales growth of 9 percent, and a modernization backlog up 30 percent at year end. Mitsubishi Electric followed in December 2025 with AT-MOD, a package designed to preserve existing components while integrating new technology to reduce disruption and cost versus a full tear-out. TK Elevator opened an 80 million euro Product Competence Center in Esslingen, Germany in September 2025, scaling production capacity for its EOX platform from 500 to 7,000 units per year. Service and modernization now account for 65 percent of TK Elevator's 9.2 billion euro annual revenue. Schindler's tiered approach, with its ReStore, ReNew, and RePlace packages, earned Elevator World's 2025 Project of the Year for its modernization of 28 gearless elevators, 3 MRL elevators, and 3 escalators at the Prudential Tower in Boston, all completed in a fully occupied building.
Regulation is accelerating the timeline. New York City's Local Law 97 mandates that buildings over 25,000 square feet reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent by 2030, with annual fines of $268 per ton of CO2 over the limit. Older elevators can account for 10 percent of a building's total power consumption, and an energy retrofit can cut that by up to 70 percent. Regenerative drive technology, LED lighting with automatic shutoff, and modern motor controllers are turning elevator modernization into a compliance requirement rather than a discretionary upgrade. The ASME A17.1-2025 code cycle adds further pressure with updated requirements for emergency communications, seismic standards, and machine-room-less provisions that older installations do not meet.
The cost math for building owners is stark but not simple. A partial modernization runs $50,000 to $175,000 per car, while a full replacement costs $250,000 to $500,000 per car and takes roughly a year per unit. Joe Bera, Schindler's Vice President of Modernization Sales, told Bisnow: "I've been in modernization for most of my career, 30 years, and I've never seen the market like it is today." But Colliers noted in a June 2025 report that elevator replacements rarely boost rental rates or sale prices, so many owners delay them until a building changes hands or a serious incident forces the issue. The post-COVID period amplified this dynamic. Property owners deferred modernization during tight capital years, and those deferred projects are now stacking up against regulatory deadlines.
For the field workforce, the modernization wave has direct implications. Labor availability is a persistent constraint. The Associated General Contractors of America has repeatedly flagged construction labor shortages as a top industry concern, and elevator modernization work is not immune. Modernization work in occupied buildings requires a different skill set than new construction: tenant coordination, phased shutdowns, and the ability to work with legacy equipment from multiple OEMs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects 5 percent employment growth for elevator installers and repairers from 2024 to 2034, faster than average, but the pipeline of apprentices entering through NEIEP may not be sufficient to meet the combined demand from new construction, modernization, and the ongoing service backlog.